For the past three years, the phrase \u201csupply chain disruption\u201d has become almost part of our daily parlance. This phenomenon that grew out of the COVID-19 pandemic affects everything from food in grocery stores to high-tech computer chips necessary in today\u2019s advanced automobiles. Print service providers are well aware of the problems with the supply chain as they grapple with the difficulties in acquiring the paper they need for customer projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Particularly for mid-sized and small printers and publishers, the paper supply situation was worse than bad during the pandemic, acknowledges Daniel Dejan, principal\/creative director at Dejan Associates. \u201cTwo years ago, some brand managers were forced to use two and sometimes three different paper grades for direct-mail and catalog projects,\u201d he recalls. \u201cChina was shut down for two and a half months\u2014and imported paper accounts for approximately 30% of what we use here in the states.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2020, the lack of paper availability was very much about labor shortages, Dejan contends. \u201cIt was the longshoremen and the truck drivers, remember?\u201d he asks. \u201cPeople got sick from the virus, and things snow-balled.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But fret not: Relief is in sight, predicts Dejan, who has worked with Sappi* Fine Paper North America for decades as the face of its education, training, and consulting group. A designer by trade, he is a self-proclaimed lover of all things graphic arts, especially ink on paper. \u201cThe severity of the situation has subsided,\u201d he assures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe mills are back up now and cranking at capacity,\u201d Dejan notes, \u201cand all the freighters are getting in [to shore]. Paper is on trucks.\u201d However, print project managers still need to build in the necessary lead time: Plan ahead and order paper now for 2023 Q1 and first-half projects. Don\u2019t make the mistake of procrastinating, he warns! To facilitate more accurate scheduling, printers can employ online ordering portals, which can be useful when gauging the availability of certain paper grades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some industry observers contend the paper supply issue will continue through at least mid-2023. The problem with that prediction, according to Dejan, is the proverbial \u201csupply chain\u201d involves multiple moving pieces. \u201cIt\u2019s quite complex,\u201d he explains. Labor, shipping logistics, and raw materials are three big spokes that all are part of the supply chain wheel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are three separate issues with varying degrees of magnitude. \u201cAnd each requires a different solution,\u201d Dejan adds, pointing out that manufacturers in the United States and throughout the world are still catching up on the shortage of chips that run cars and trucks. That problem, of course, represents the shipping side of the challenge. \u201cIt\u2019s the domino effect,\u201d he says, \u201cbut not all these dominoes are the same size!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For good measure, Dejan throws a fourth problematic area onto the game board: mergers and acquisitions. \u201cThere are a lot fewer mills now,\u201d he reports, \u201cwhich has changed the landscape.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Don\u2019t be na\u00efve, Dejan urges, when it comes to paper-buying realties. During the pandemic, \u201clarger printers and publishers bought over-stock as soon as it became available,\u201d he reports. \u201cThose companies that have cash can buy what they want, when they want it. Mills were buying every pound of paper they could get to fulfill their large contracts with publishers and catalogers.\u201d This may be the way of the business world, but it created a major issue by taking paper off the market, he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When consumer buying habits began to change (even before the pandemic hit), there were so many mill closures, including Sappi, Dejan remembers. \u201cThe Amazon\/Wayfair\/Overstock.com online shopping effect dates back at least 10 years,\u201d he surmises. To meet growing packaging demands, many mills moved production over from fine printing papers to board and corrugated. \u201cIt takes two to three years to modify a paper machine to do it properly,\u201d he informs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The lesson here is that there will always be issues that affect supply. COVID isn\u2019t over, but the virus and its variant\u2019s effects on the labor force are not as big as they once were. What\u2019s next? More unionization? The 2024 election is coming, so fasten your seatbelts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n